[大选] 美国提前投票，情况有利民主党

[大选] 美国提前投票，情况有利民主党

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参考文本：

Across the country, Americans are already streaming to election offices to cast their ballots for the next president. Officials in early voting states are reporting record turnouts. State and county figures show that Democrats are voting early in greater numbers in Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Nevada and New Mexico.

In Georgia, African Americans are voting in greater numbers than they did in 2004.

Michael McDonald is an elections expert at George Mason University in Virginia who tracks early voting patterns. He says this year's early voting is trending very different from past elections.

"We are seeing an early voter electorate that tends to tip a little bit towards the Democrats and also towards African Americans," McDonald said. "So right now, this looks to be an early vote that will favor Obama. And what is significant about this is that usually the early vote favors the Republicans. So to see the Democrats in a better position in early voting at this stage in the game is a bit unusual."

Paul Gronke of the Early Voting Information Center at Reed College in Oregon says the trends toward Democrats are unprecedented in some places.

"This year things are very different," Gronke said. "It is really a mirror image this year. African Americans in Georgia are voting at an almost 10 percent higher rate than they have in previous elections. Democrats in North Carolina are more than double the rate that they were just four years ago. In Franklin County, Ohio, which is where Ohio State is, of course, the numbers are shocking. Nine-thousand Democrats have voted, 9,000 independents have voted and 900 Republicans have voted. Those numbers are just shocking."

Some election experts, including McDonald and Gronke, say that the record turnout for early voting could indicate that record numbers of American voters will likely turn out on November 4.

"A turnout that we have not seen of this level since 1908 in American elections, if we top a 64 percent turnout rate in 1960, which it looks like we will do," McDonald said. "We will have to go all the way back to 1908 to see the next highest turnout level of 66 percent."

American Enterprise Institute political analyst John Fortier says there is clearly a Democratic advantage in early voting, but he warns everyone not to jump to conclusions.

"I think that it is due to the organization of the Obama campaign, and may be an indication of enthusiasm on the Democratic side," Fortier said. "I would be a bit cautious to note that if you turn out all your voters early and you do not have any left on election day, it still ends up being the same amount."

Officials report that early voting in Colorado is about even between Republicans and Democrats. In Florida, Republicans have an edge among absentee voters, but Democrats are lining up in larger numbers in person at early voting polling places. No votes will be counted until November 4.

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参考译文：

美国各地选民陆续不断地到选举办公室投票选举下一任总统。在提前进行投票的州里，官员们报告的投票人数创下记录。州和县的数据显示，在俄亥俄州、北卡罗来纳州、爱奥华州、内华达州和新墨西哥州，大量民主党人都提前投票。

在乔治亚州，非洲裔美国人的投票人数多于2004年的人数。

关注提前投票趋势的弗吉尼亚州乔治梅森大学选举问题专家麦克唐纳说，今年提前投票的趋势和以往非常不同。

麦克唐纳说："我们看到提前投票的选民有一点偏向民主党人，还偏向非洲裔美国人。所以目前的提前选举看上去是有利于奥巴马的。可是重要之处是，过去的提前选举都是有利于共和党人的。所以，在目前阶段看到提早投票使民主党处于有利地位是有些不同寻常。"

俄勒冈里德大学提前选举信息中心的格朗克说，这个趋势偏向民主党人在某些地方是前所未有的。

格朗克说："今年情况非常不同。在乔治亚州的非洲裔美国人的投票率大约比以前高出大约10%。在北卡罗来纳州的民主党人的投票率比4年前翻了一倍。在俄亥俄州州立大学所在地--富兰克林县，那里提前投票的人数令人吃惊。9千名民主党人已经投了票、9千名独立选民也已投了票，900名共和党人也投了票。这些数字简直让人吃惊。"

包括麦克唐纳和格朗克在内的一些选举问题专家说，提前投票人数创记录可能表明在11月4号那天投票的美国选民人数会创下记录。

麦克唐纳说："从1908年选举以来，我们都没有见过这样的投票率。1960年的投票率达到64%，我们看来也会达到这个水平。要是投票率更高的话，那我们就要一直回到1908年，那次选举的投票率达到66%。"

美国企业研究所政治分析人士弗迪尔说，在提前投票中，民主党明显占优势，但是他警告大家不要草率下结论。

弗迪尔说，"我觉得，这是由于奥巴马竞选的组织工作所造成的，也可能是表现民主党人的热情。我要很谨慎地指出，如果你让所有选民都提前投票，到了选举日没人投票，最后的数字仍然是一样的。"

官员们报告说，共和党人和民主党人在科罗拉多州的提前选举中，平分秋色。在佛罗里达州，共和党人在缺席投票的选民中占优势，但是大量民主党人在提前投票点排队投票。所有选票要到11月4号才开市点算。

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